2026 college football simulations: CFP, conference title odds

Key Points:

• Ohio State leads preseason national title odds for 2026 college football at 14.2%, followed by Oregon (11.1%) and Notre Dame (10.4%), but even favorites have long odds due to the variability of the season and playoff structure.
• Seven teams have over a 35% chance of making the College Football Playoff (CFP), including Notre Dame (71.6%), Ohio State (59.1%), and Oregon (58.8%), though on average only about four teams will make it, leaving room for surprises.
• Conference title favorites vary widely, with Memphis favored in the American Conference (23.6%), Miami in the ACC (29.0%), Texas Tech in the Big 12 (29.7%), and Ohio State in the Big Ten (30.7%), among others.
• Simulations of the 2026 season reveal a wide range of possible outcomes, including scenarios with major upsets, unexpected playoff teams like North Dakota State, and surprise national champions such as Oregon, Notre Dame, and Indiana.
• The projections highlight the high volatility and unpredictability of college football, with some simulations producing chaotic conference standings, multiple ties, and even a five-loss team (BYU) making the national title game.