2026 Election: New poll shows movement in several top Texas races

Key Points:

• A new Texas Southern University poll shows the U.S. Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is essentially tied, with Paxton closing an earlier gap but facing challenges within his own party.
• Over 25% of moderate Republicans plan to vote for Talarico, indicating a fractured Texas GOP and complicating Paxton's path to victory despite his regained ground among Republicans.
• Democrats aim to stay close in the race and leverage a potential nationwide blue wave on November 3, while Republicans plan a significant media campaign to lower Talarico's favorability and solidify support for Paxton.
• The poll also highlights a competitive governor's race, with Republican Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa by four points, though 21% of voters remain undecided about Hinojosa.
• Additional findings reveal a high level of voter indecision and willingness to split ballots, with notable shifts in the Railroad Commission race following a controversial social media post by Republican candidate Bo French, who has seen a significant drop in favorability.