2026 Kentucky Derby Race Simulator, Model Projections
Action Network • • sports
Key Points:
- The 152nd Kentucky Derby will feature 20 horses competing at Churchill Downs on Saturday evening, with post time at 6:57 p.m. ET.
- A custom Kentucky Derby race simulator has been developed using power rankings and Monte Carlo simulation to generate 10,000 random race outcomes, aiding fans in handicapping the field and identifying betting edges.
- The simulator incorporates various factors including Beyer Speed Figures, pace fingerprints, class, distance fit, trainer and jockey quality, form trends, workout sharpness, and tactical speed bonuses to create a comprehensive ability score for each horse.
- Race conditions such as pace shape probabilities and day-of variance like trip events and starting position impact are modeled to reflect realistic race dynamics and outcomes.
- The tool is available for fans to experiment with before race day, providing projected odds and finishing positions to enhance engagement and informed betting decisions.
