2026 WNBA Playoffs Primer: First-Round Upset Watch

Key Points:

• The 2024 WNBA playoffs feature an unusually tight competition, with only a seven-game gap between the No. 1 and No. 8 seeds, creating a wide-open first round ripe for potential upsets.
• The first-round format includes a home-away-home schedule with significant travel demands, compounded by many players still recovering from the recent FIBA tournament, increasing opportunities for underdog victories.
• Key matchups include the injury-hit Dallas Wings facing the strong Golden State Valkyries, and the No. 8 New York Liberty challenging the top-seeded Minnesota Lynx, with both lower seeds possessing unique advantages despite being underdogs.
• The Washington Mystics and Atlanta Dream series is expected to be a defensive battle, with the Mystics favored due to greater depth and free throw efficiency, while the Indiana Fever and Los Angeles Aces matchup could turn into a high-scoring affair favoring Indiana’s historic backcourt.
• The Golden State Valkyries have the easiest path to the Finals, while the Minnesota Lynx face the toughest route but remain favored to win the championship due to their potent offense and improving defense.