5 Scenarios for Putin's Ukraine War

Key Points:

• Russian President Vladimir Putin suggested the Ukraine war "is coming to an end," amid a smaller Victory Day and a near-expiry U.S.-brokered ceasefire, though Moscow and Kyiv continue to accuse each other of violations.
• Five possible scenarios for the conflict's future include an ambiguous armistice without peace, a prolonged grinding "forever war," a costly Russian coercive victory, a Ukrainian strategic recovery, or dangerous escalation leading to Russia-NATO spillover.
• An armistice may save lives short-term but risks renewed conflict due to unresolved core issues like territory and security guarantees, while a forever war would see ongoing fighting supported by external backers on both sides.
• Russia could seek a coercive victory by making Ukraine's choices more costly than its own, relying on allies like China and North Korea, whereas Ukraine aims for strategic recovery through improved defenses and increased self-sufficiency in military technology.
• The most dangerous scenario involves hybrid warfare escalating into open NATO conflict, which could be triggered by sabotage or cyberattacks, testing NATO's unity and risking a broader confrontation despite Russia's military inferiority to a united alliance.