Abiy Ahmed wins Ethiopian election but fears grow of renewed conflict

Key Points:

• Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's Prosperity Party won a landslide victory in the general election, securing 438 of 501 contested seats despite low opposition participation and conflict-related disruptions.
• Key regions such as Amhara and Oromia faced violence from armed groups rejecting the election results, while Tigray was entirely excluded due to ongoing security concerns following a recent civil war.
• Relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea have deteriorated, with Eritrea now allied with Tigray forces, raising fears of renewed conflict that could destabilize the broader region.
• Both the Ethiopian government and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) accuse each other of violating the 2022 peace agreement, with reports of forced recruitment and escalating tensions in Tigray.
• International actors, including the EU and US, have called for de-escalation and imposed sanctions on hardline TPLF members, warning of the risk of renewed conflict despite no immediate return to full-scale war.