All 16 New Russian Starlink-Rival Satellites Short of Target Orbit

Key Points:

• Sixteen Russian Rassvet-3 satellites, launched on July 19 to orbit at roughly 500 miles, are instead stuck at much lower altitudes between 190 and 250 miles, where atmospheric drag shortens their operational life.
• This failure jeopardizes Russia's plan to build a Starlink-like satellite internet network, especially after SpaceX cut off service to Russian forces in February; only 12 of 32 Rassvet-3 satellites so far have reached stable orbits.
• Analysts suggest the setback indicates Russia may be unprepared to rapidly deploy the constellation, which requires an estimated 200-250 operational satellites for effective coverage, while SpaceX operates over 11,000 Starlink satellites.
• Launch capacity is limited by reliance on the Soyuz-2.1b rocket, capable of deploying about 80 satellites per year, meaning it could take over two years to reach the needed constellation size, assuming no further failures.
• Satellite internet is a critical communication tool in the Ukraine conflict, with both sides using it for troop coordination and drone operations; Ukraine has also targeted Russian space infrastructure to disrupt these efforts.