As US troops sail to Middle East, how likely is Trump to order boots on the ground?

Key Points:

• The US has deployed thousands of marines and paratroopers to the Middle East as part of a strategy to pressure Iran, with potential plans for a limited military assault, particularly targeting strategic locations like Kharg Island to disrupt Iran’s oil exports.
• Despite Secretary of State Marco Rubio's assertion that US goals can be achieved without ground troops, the presence of these forces could enable President Trump to order operations aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz or weakening Iran’s control over it.
• An amphibious assault on Kharg Island would be complex and risky, involving potential Iranian countermeasures and uncertainty about how long US forces could hold the territory amid ongoing conflict.
• Other strategic islands in the Strait of Hormuz, such as Qeshm and Larak, are also potential targets, but their size and defensive capabilities pose significant challenges for US occupation or attacks.
• The US is also considering special operations to recover missing highly enriched uranium in Iran, but such missions carry high risks of casualties, making large-scale ground engagements unlikely; meanwhile, Trump has postponed major attacks on Iran’s infrastructure as diplomatic efforts continue.