Atlantic hurricane season quieter from El Niño, CSU says

Key Points:

• The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is forecasted to be one of the least active in over a decade, with Colorado State University predicting only nine storms, four hurricanes, and just one major hurricane, which is below average.
• A strengthening El Niño, potentially reaching record strength by fall, is expected to increase wind shear and dry air over the Atlantic, creating unfavorable conditions for hurricane development and contributing to the predicted reduced activity.
• Despite a quieter season forecast, tropical storms like Arthur have shown that significant impacts such as flooding can still occur without hurricanes, underscoring the ongoing risk each season.
• Ocean temperatures present mixed signals, with some regions cooler than average and others warmer, adding uncertainty to the season's activity but generally supporting a less active outlook.
• The Atlantic hurricane season may remain suppressed through July and into August due to El Niño effects, but residents in hurricane-prone areas are advised to prepare regardless of forecasts, as a single landfall can cause major impacts.