Beef prices won't ease for years, economists warn as herd shrinks
Key Points:
- The U.S. cattle herd is at its smallest size in 75 years due to prolonged drought, rising feed costs, and an aging ranching workforce, leading to sustained high beef prices.
- Drought has severely reduced grasslands and feed availability, forcing ranchers to sell breeding cows and hindering herd rebuilding efforts, which can take several years.
- The beef supply chain is highly concentrated, with four companies processing about 85% of grain-fed cattle, raising concerns about market competition and pricing practices.
- Despite rising beef prices—up about 16% from March 2025 to March 2026—consumer demand remains strong, with over $45 billion spent on beef in 2025.