Bowen: Strait of Hormuz standoff raises risk of sliding back into all out war

Key Points:

• The four-week-old ceasefire in the Gulf is fragile, with US and Iran maintaining pressure on each other, risking a return to full-scale conflict amid stalled diplomatic talks in Islamabad.
• Control of the Strait of Hormuz is central to the crisis, with Iran asserting control and threatening economic consequences by potentially closing this vital shipping route, impacting global oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies.
• The US Navy's escort of ships through the strait has heightened tensions, but does not restore previous freedom of navigation, as Iran signals readiness to escalate the conflict, particularly targeting the UAE.
• The UAE, a key regional player, has strengthened ties with the US and Israel in response to Iranian threats, notably after attacks on its strategic port of Fujairah, while preferring to avoid direct military confrontation with Iran.
• President Trump's fluctuating approach, including abandoning the JCPOA nuclear deal in favor of a "maximum pressure" policy, has failed to curb Iran's nuclear ambitions and contributed to the current precarious situation with no clear resolution in sight.