By 2030, Korean women are projected to become the first population in human history with an average life expectancy above 90 years — exceeding even Japan — according to a Lancet study of 35 industrial

Key Points:

• A 2017 Lancet study led by Majid Ezzati projected that South Korean women born in 2030 would have an average life expectancy of approximately 90.8 years, potentially making them the first national population to surpass the 90-year threshold.
• The study used a Bayesian model ensemble combining 21 forecasting models and assigned a 57% probability that South Korean female life expectancy would exceed 90 years by 2030, with a 90% probability it would surpass 86.7 years, the highest recorded in 2012.
• South Korea's longevity gains are attributed to broad socioeconomic improvements, universal healthcare access, low obesity rates, lower blood pressure, and equitable health outcomes across socioeconomic groups, contrasting with the United States' lower projected life expectancy due to obesity, healthcare inequality, and other factors.
• Since 1985, South Korean female life expectancy has increased dramatically by about 17 years, driven initially by reductions in infectious diseases and more recently by declines in chronic disease mortality, positioning South Korea to lead longevity gains among industrialized nations.
• As of 2024, South Korean female life expectancy reached approximately 86.7 years, with the COVID-19 pandemic causing only a modest dip; the broader projection that South Korea would be the first country to cross the 90-year mark remains likely, while countries like Japan and France follow closely and the US continues to lag.