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California’s El Niño Winter Could Be ‘Profoundly Unsubtle,’ Scientists Warn
KQED • • nation
Key Points:
- Climate scientist Daniel Swain reports a 90% to 95% confidence in a wetter-than-average winter for California, with the Bay Area and North Bay especially likely to experience very wet conditions, particularly in January and February.
- El Niño is strengthening and expected to peak between November and January, with its impacts on California’s weather often delayed until peak intensity is reached.
- All major climate models consistently predict increased precipitation due to El Niño, which is causing warm water to push toward South America, generating Kelvin waves that raise sea levels along the coast.
- Swain warns of potential major flooding later this winter, especially during king tides around Thanksgiving and Christmas, which could disrupt transportation on low-lying coastal highways and interstates in California.
- The combination of elevated sea levels and El Niño-driven storms raises the risk of record-breaking coastal flooding, even without extreme storm events.
