Campaign staffers keep trying to bet on races despite push to curb insider trading

Key Points:

• Kalshi, the largest prediction market company, has implemented a new system using Federal Election Commission (FEC) data to block campaign staffers from betting on races they are involved in, but some trades have still slipped through.
• The system cross-references campaign staffer names from FEC filings with user logs to flag potential insider trading, though FEC data is incomplete and does not cover all campaign workers or local elections.
• Rival prediction markets Polymarket and PredictIt also claim to monitor and report suspicious activity, but have not detailed their enforcement efforts publicly; Polymarket reported law enforcement referrals including an arrest.
• Experts caution that FEC data is not comprehensive, leaving gaps that could be exploited, and Kalshi acknowledges ongoing challenges and investigations to improve monitoring, including expanding to local races.
• With limited federal regulation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, prediction market companies are self-policing insider trading amid growing congressional scrutiny and an active House Oversight Committee investigation.