Can Republicans keep control of Congress? Poll says maybe

Key Points:

• A Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted July 8-13 shows Democrats hold a slim 3-point lead over Republicans (48% to 45%) ahead of the November midterm elections, despite President Donald Trump's near-record-low approval ratings.
• Among voters "absolutely certain to vote," Democrats' advantage increases to 8 points, with 53% support compared to 45% for Republicans, indicating higher Democratic voter motivation.
• Trump's overall approval rating remains low at 37%, consistent with a recent Economist/YouGov poll, amid challenges including economic issues and the Iran war.
• Republicans currently hold a narrow 53-47 majority in the Senate and a slim margin in the House, making party unity critical as they aim to advance Trump's agenda, while partisan gerrymandering adds uncertainty to Democrats' chances of regaining control.
• Compared to 2018, when Democrats had a 10-point lead and gained 40 House seats, their current lead and voter enthusiasm are more modest, although Democrats are 10% more likely than Republicans to be certain to vote this year.