China and America Are Courting Nuclear Catastrophe

Key Points:

• China has nearly tripled its nuclear warhead stockpile since 2019 and continues to expand its nuclear capabilities and infrastructure, aiming to strengthen and enlarge its strategic deterrence without engaging in arms control negotiations.
• The U.S. fears the shift from a bipolar to a tripolar nuclear world and has responded by strengthening its own nuclear arsenal and withdrawing from the New START treaty to avoid restrictions excluding China, but Beijing remains uninterested in arms control talks.
• China views its nuclear buildup as stabilizing, believing it will force the U.S. to treat it as a peer and deter challenges to its core interests, though this stance exacerbates U.S. anxieties and fuels a security spiral involving nuclear expansions by other powers.
• Both China and the U.S. misinterpret each other's nuclear postures, with the U.S. worried about China's potential first-use despite China's conventional military buildup and nuclear no-first-use policy; increased transparency on short-range nuclear forces could reduce these tensions.
• To avoid a destabilizing nuclear arms race, the U.S. and China should pursue reciprocal measures focused on preventing nuclear first use, leveraging upcoming diplomatic opportunities to establish credible commitments and confidence-building steps that prioritize conventional deterrence over nuclear escalation.