China Cannot Yet Hold a Beach on Taiwan

Key Points:

• Analysis challenges Washington’s concern that China could rapidly land 60,000 to 400,000 troops on Taiwan’s coast, finding that China’s amphibious capability realistically allows only a single Marine brigade landing with limited supplies.
• Simulations using the Advance to Contact (ATC) model show that Taiwan’s well-defended ports and rapid army redeployment along extensive road networks would thwart Chinese amphibious assaults, resulting in high PLAN casualties and failed beachhead attempts.
• China’s lack of sufficient artillery and air suppression capability, combined with Taiwan’s dense artillery coverage and quick counterattacks, severely limits the sustainability and success of any amphibious landing without securing a beachhead for prolonged buildup.
• Even under optimistic conditions favoring China, multiple simulated amphibious assault scenarios against key Taiwanese coastal cities ended in catastrophic PLAN defeats, indicating Taiwan’s strong defensive posture and the high cost of opposed landings.
• The study concludes China is more likely to attempt seizing less-defended areas like Chiayi for a prolonged buildup rather than a rapid, large-scale landing, while Taiwan must maintain rapid reaction capabilities and political willingness to preemptively respond to threats.