China's purges of top military commanders spur questions about war-waging ability

Key Points:

• China’s recent purges of top military leaders, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, have likely weakened short-term war-fighting readiness but strengthened President Xi Jinping’s control over the military, a key power base for the Communist Party.
• The crackdown is part of Xi’s broader anti-corruption campaign since 2012, aimed at consolidating party control and rooting out corrupt elements within the military, which analysts argue ultimately enhances the armed forces' political cohesion and combat effectiveness.
• Despite extensive leadership changes, China continues its military modernization, weapons testing, and complex exercises, though concerns remain about the impact of purges on the PLA’s ability to conduct complex operations, especially regarding Taiwan.
• The purge underscores the PLA’s primary role as an instrument of the Communist Party rather than a national military, reinforcing the party’s absolute leadership over the armed forces amid growing regional tensions.
• The vacancies in the top military commission and potential delays in filling key posts until the 2027 party congress may hinder China’s military engagement with foreign counterparts, even as Xi prepares to secure a fourth term in office.