Citrini Said It Sent an Analyst to Strait of Hormuz

Key Points:

• The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil and gas shipping channel, has seen sharply reduced traffic due to threats from Iranian drones, mines, and missiles, causing energy price spikes and economic concerns.
• Citrini Research sent an analyst to the region for firsthand investigation, revealing that official data underestimates actual vessel traffic and that Iran is exerting control by regulating passage rather than fully blocking the strait.
• The analyst experienced direct encounters with smugglers, Iranian coast guards, and observed active drone patrols, concluding that Iran aims to manage the strait as a "toll road" rather than a blockade.
• Citrini's report suggests that while the war may escalate, Iran likely wants the strait to remain open under its authority, with traffic expected to increase despite ongoing conflict.
• The firm outlined two possible outcomes: either US military action removes Iranian control, restoring open passage, or prolonged conflict results in Iran maintaining partial control over the strait's operations.