‘Closer to a break than ever’: Can NATO survive if Trump pulls the US out?

Key Points:

• Donald Trump’s longstanding criticism of NATO allies, including disputes over defense spending and territorial threats, has escalated tensions, especially after many allies refused to support his proposed war on Iran, leading to concerns about the alliance’s cohesion.
• While Trump cannot unilaterally withdraw the US from NATO without congressional approval, he can undermine the alliance by reducing military support, relocating troops, or cutting coordination, actions that could significantly weaken NATO’s credibility and effectiveness.
• European NATO members have increased defense spending by over 62% between 2020 and 2025 in response to security challenges, but they remain heavily dependent on US capabilities in areas like intelligence, missile defense, and logistics, with full self-sufficiency projected to take a decade or more and cost around $1 trillion.
• Some experts argue that NATO could survive a US withdrawal by evolving into a primarily European military cooperation framework, driven by shared security incentives, though the threat from Russia remains a pressing concern with potential confrontations anticipated as early as 2027-2029.
• NATO’s origins and history underscore its role in serving both US and European interests, with past collective defense actions benefiting the US significantly; thus, the alliance is not solely a European security mechanism but a transatlantic partnership with mutual responsibilities.