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Colorado State cuts 2026 Atlantic hurricane forecast amid strengthening El Niño
FOX Weather • • nation
Key Points:
- Colorado State University (CSU) has lowered its 2023 Atlantic hurricane season forecast to 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane, down from its June forecast, due to the high likelihood of a strong El Niño event.
- The forecast remains below the average Atlantic hurricane season, which typically sees 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and aligns with NOAA's outlook.
- El Niño, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean waters, tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by strengthening the subtropical jet stream, which creates unfavorable wind conditions for storm development.
- CSU reports a 100% chance of a strong or "Super" El Niño forming this year, which is expected to peak during the hurricane season, further reducing the likelihood of intense storms.
- The probability of a major hurricane making U.S. landfall has decreased to 17%, significantly lower than the historical average of 43%, with a mid-season forecast update expected in August.
