Cooper Flips Trump Margin with Independents 29 Points as Whatley Struggles

Key Points:

• Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by 11 points overall and holds a 25-point advantage among independent voters in the latest North Carolina Senate race poll, a significant shift from Trump's 4-point win among independents in 2024.
• The North Carolina Senate race is a critical battleground for Democrats aiming to flip control of the Senate in the 2026 midterms, with Cooper favored but the contest still competitive.
• Trump’s approval rating in North Carolina is underwater at 38%, with only 26% approval among independents, which could negatively impact Whatley, who is closely tied to Trump and has his endorsement.
• Other recent polls and prediction markets also favor Cooper, showing him with leads ranging from 5 to 11 points, and prediction markets giving him over a 90% chance of winning.
• North Carolina remains a key swing state with nearly equal registered Democrats and Republicans, but a large unaffiliated voter base; Democrats see this race as essential to gaining Senate control given the narrow Republican majority.