Democrats' midterm sweep could sideline Electoral College by 2028

Key Points:

• Democrats' midterm victories have given them control of key states—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Nevada—that could push the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact (NPV) over the 270 electoral vote threshold needed to activate it for the 2028 presidential election.
• The NPV Compact would allocate a state's electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote, effectively making the Electoral College outcome reflect the nationwide popular vote while keeping the Electoral College structure intact.
• Supporters argue the compact ensures every vote counts equally, but critics, including election law experts, contend it could unconstitutionally alter the Electoral College system without a constitutional amendment, potentially leading to Supreme Court challenges.
• The compact requires congressional approval under the Constitution’s compact clause, and while Congress could pass it without a presidential signature, non-participating states may sue, arguing it undermines the federal system.
• National Popular Vote advocates plan to introduce legislation in the 2027 sessions to secure the necessary electoral votes before the July 2028 deadline to implement the compact in the 2028 election, though political and legal hurdles remain.