Democrats remain clear favourites to gain control of Congress at midterms as Trump’s ratings slide again

Key Points:

• Democrats have a 75% chance of gaining control of the Senate and a 95% chance of winning the House in the November 3 US midterm elections, according to Nate Silver’s forecast model, with a 9.5-point lead on the generic ballot over Republicans.
• Donald Trump’s net approval rating remains deeply negative at -23.3, with 60.2% disapproving of his performance; his ratings on key issues like inflation and the economy are particularly low, and his perceived sympathy towards Russia has hurt his standing.
• Rising oil prices driven by the ongoing Iran war are expected to increase petrol prices before the midterms, which could negatively impact Republican chances, as economic concerns such as inflation and fuel costs weigh on voter sentiment.
• Democrats lead by small margins in key battleground states that Trump won decisively in 2024, indicating competitive races that could influence control of both chambers of Congress.
• While petrol prices have recently dipped, the surge in Brent crude oil prices suggests petrol costs will likely rise again, potentially affecting voter behavior and benefiting Democrats amid economic dissatisfaction.