Early voting numbers in Texas GOP Senate runoff offer mixed clues
Key Points:
- Early voting in the Texas Senate runoff shows a regional divide, with John Cornyn performing well in major metro areas while Ken Paxton dominates smaller conservative counties, creating uncertainty about who holds the edge.
- Turnout in the runoff dropped significantly compared to the March primary, with about 820,000 Texans voting early versus 1.3 million previously, partly due to a shorter early voting period without weekend days.
- Cornyn’s strongholds like Dallas, Travis, Tarrant, and Harris counties retained 67-80% of their early primary voters, whereas some Paxton-friendly suburban counties such as Collin and Montgomery saw sharper declines but higher overall turnout rates.
- Cornyn’s campaign is pushing for high turnout, contrasting with Paxton’s strategy that seemingly favors a smaller electorate; however, Paxton’s campaign has not commented on turnout efforts.
- The runoff outcome may also hinge on which candidate gains support from Rep. Wesley Hunt’s backers, who finished third in the primary.