El Nino dampens Atlantic hurricane risk, but increases it in Pacific
AP News • • nation
Key Points:
- NOAA forecasts a 55% chance of a below-average 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting 8 to 14 named storms, with 3 to 6 hurricanes and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, below the normal averages of 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes.
- The anticipated strong El Nino is expected to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing wind shear and dry air intrusion, which disrupt storm formation and intensification, though it will not eliminate the risk of destructive storms.
- Most other forecasting groups also predict a below-average Atlantic season, with Colorado State University projecting the lowest activity since 2015, a year marked by a strong El Nino.
- While the Atlantic may see fewer and weaker storms, the central and eastern Pacific hurricane season is expected to be more active due to El Nino, with a 70% chance of an above-normal season in that region.
- Historical data shows El Nino years produce fewer U.S. Atlantic coast hurricane landfalls compared to La Nina years, but Gulf coast landfalls are less affected; the overall risk of devastating storms remains significant despite lower activity forecasts.