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El Niño could become strongest on record. What it means for North Carolina
WRAL • • general
Key Points:
- NOAA's Climate Prediction Center forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño developing this fall and winter, with nearly a 70% chance it will be the strongest on record since 1950.
- A strong El Niño typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity by increasing vertical wind shear, which disrupts storm formation, contributing to a quieter hurricane season so far despite warm Atlantic waters.
- For North Carolina, El Niño usually brings wetter-than-normal winters, which could help alleviate the state's severe drought and water supply issues experienced earlier this year.
- While a wetter winter may increase the chances of precipitation-related winter weather like snow or ice, the strength of El Niño does not guarantee specific weather outcomes, and variability in impacts remains.
- NOAA advises viewing the forecast as an opportunity to prepare for potentially wetter conditions while continuing to monitor evolving weather patterns, especially as the event unfolds amid ongoing global ocean warming and climate change uncertainties.
