El Niño expected to help spur intense hurricane and typhoon seasons in the North Pacific
Yale Climate Connections • • nation
Key Points:
- NOAA's 2026 forecast predicts an above-average hurricane season in the northeast Pacific, with 15-22 named storms, 9-14 hurricanes, and 5-9 major hurricanes, driven largely by a developing strong El Niño event.
- The central Pacific, including Hawaii, is also expected to see increased activity with 5-13 tropical cyclones forecasted, compared to a near-average season of 4-5 cyclones.
- Historical data shows strong El Niño years, such as 1997 and 2015, correlate with intense hurricanes like Category 5 Hurricane Linda and Hurricane Patricia, highlighting the potential severity of the upcoming season.
- The Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) forecast for the Northwest Pacific typhoon season anticipates 25% above-average activity, projecting 27 tropical storms, 18 typhoons, and 11 major typhoons, influenced by the same El Niño event.
- Early 2026 has already seen significant typhoon activity, including Super Typhoon Sinkalu, a Category 5 storm causing severe damage in the Northern Mariana Islands and Guam, with overall seasonal activity exceeding averages for this time of year.