El Niño is headed for record-shattering intensity, NOAA says

Key Points:

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a nearly 70% chance that the current Super El Niño will be the strongest on record, surpassing the 1982-1983 event in intensity.
• This forecast upgrade is due to the rapid intensification of the El Niño and consistent computer model projections showing a peak in late fall and early winter with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2.5°C above average.
• El Niño causes significant global weather shifts, including droughts in Indonesia and Australia and flooding in parts of South America, with typical U.S. impacts being wetter conditions in the southern states and milder, drier winters in the Midwest.
• The unprecedented strength of this El Niño, combined with the current warmer baseline due to climate change, creates uncertain but potentially severe weather impacts, amplifying heat waves and other disasters.
• NOAA indicates it is almost certain that 2027 will become the hottest year on record globally, with 2026 also a possibility, as El Niño effects compound ongoing human-driven global warming.