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Every way the polls could be wrong, in one chart
Strength In Numbers | G. Elliott Morris • • nation
Key Points:
- The final pre-election podcast on Oct. 29, 2026, will feature live Q&A about the midterms at 2:00 PM Eastern, with paying members able to ask questions in the chat and all listeners able to follow along.
- An election night livestream is scheduled for Nov. 3 at 6:45 PM ET on the Strength In Numbers website and Substack Live, featuring teams from The Downballot and FiftyPlusOne.
- There is ongoing debate about polling accuracy, with liberals, Republicans, and political leaders expressing skepticism about poll results and their potential biases or errors.
- The author has conducted multiple investigations into polling errors, exploring reasons why polls might overestimate or underestimate Democratic support, including sampling issues and geographic voter representation.
- While no definitive prediction on polling errors can be made, the author aims to educate readers on the complexities and assumptions behind polling data, providing charts that summarize potential sources and magnitudes of error.
