Experts warn US-Israeli strikes on Iran raise nuclear proliferation risk

Key Points:

• The targeted killings of Iranian nuclear scientists by U.S.-Israeli strikes have raised concerns about increased nuclear proliferation risks if Iran's regime destabilizes, potentially leading to loss of control over uranium stockpiles and nuclear expertise.
• Experts note that while Iran can replace personnel, the unique expertise lost is difficult to rebuild, and undisclosed sites may leave dangerous nuclear materials vulnerable to theft or diversion amid internal instability.
• Several senior Iranian nuclear figures linked to weaponization were killed between 2025 and 2026, including Hossein Jabal Amelian, head of SPND, a key organization in Iran’s nuclear weapons research, complicating Iran’s weaponization capabilities.
• U.S. and Israeli strikes have hit at least 11 weaponization-related sites, disrupting Iran’s nuclear program, but Iran still retains enriched uranium stockpiles, with the International Atomic Energy Agency estimating over 200 kilograms enriched to 60%.
• The full long-term impact of the strikes remains uncertain, as Iran may have undisclosed sites and the motivation of surviving scientists could be affected by fears of future targeting, influencing Iran’s nuclear weapons development trajectory.