Fast-approaching shortage caused by Trump a 'sleeper issue' for rural voters

Key Points:

• Politico highlights a “sleeper issue” of rising diesel fuel prices driven by President Trump’s war on Iran, disruptions in Russian production, and refining bottlenecks, which could cause significant economic pain ahead of the midterm elections.
• Diesel prices have surged to an average of $5.60 per gallon, nearing the all-time record set in June 2022, with low U.S. inventories suggesting little relief during the peak demand season, particularly impacting rural and blue-collar communities.
• The increase in diesel costs is expected to inflate prices for farming, trucking, and heating oil, affecting voters in rural areas and states reliant on heating oil, which historically influences election outcomes.
• The shortage of truck drivers combined with high diesel prices creates a severe squeeze on the economy, posing a challenge for Republicans as inflation-weary voters may blame the Iran conflict initiated by Trump.
• U.S. refineries are operating near full capacity and delaying maintenance to meet demand, but risks from hurricanes and other disruptions raise the possibility of fuel shortages, with recession being the only likely way to reduce prices quickly.