Fed meeting today: Live updates

Key Points:

• Wall Street now sees over a 90% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to a target range of 3.75%-4%, a significant shift from just a month ago when the odds were 36%.
• This change in market expectations follows hawkish remarks by Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, disappointing inflation data, a strengthening labor market, and rising crude oil prices above $100 due to the Iran conflict.
• Morgan Stanley economists have revised their forecast to anticipate two rate hikes this year, citing inflationary pressures from oil prices, artificial intelligence developments, and shifting market sentiment, with one hike expected this week and another in December.
• The upcoming rate increase would be the first since July 2023, after the Fed had cut rates six times totaling 175 basis points since then.
• Investors will also closely watch the Fed's updated Summary of Economic Projections, which will include new forecasts for unemployment, inflation, GDP, and interest rate expectations through 2029.