Final St. Pete Polls: Byron Donalds leads David Jolly 48% to 46%, as long as Republicans show up

Key Points:

• A new St. Pete Polls survey shows Republican Byron Donalds leading Democrat David Jolly 48% to 46% in the Florida Governor’s race, marking the first time either candidate has led by more than a tenth of a point in three polls.
• The poll's sample assumes a Republican-leaning electorate (R+12), which is higher than the actual voter registration advantage of R+8; adjusting for this, the race tightens, with Jolly leading or tying depending on the weighting.
• Early voting patterns reveal Jolly leads among those who have already voted (58% to 38%), while Donalds leads among those who plan to vote (57% to 34%); Republicans hold a slight edge in total ballots cast so far.
• Donalds commands strong support among older voters (70+) and Republicans, while Jolly leads younger voters and independents by significant margins.
• The survey, conducted with 916 likely voters from Oct. 25-27, has a margin of error of ±3.2 percentage points and reflects a close and competitive gubernatorial race in Florida.