Five midterm races that could stun everyone on Election Day

Key Points:

• The 2026 midterm elections are shaping up with several competitive and potentially surprising races, influenced by President Donald Trump's declining approval ratings due to the war in Iran and the cost of living crisis.
• In Florida, the governor's race is tight as Trump-endorsed Republican Byron Donalds faces backlash and a strong challenge from Democrat David Jolly, with immigration and cost of living issues affecting voter sentiment.
• Kentucky’s 6th district, traditionally Republican, is seeing increased Democratic investment and a strong challenge due to Trump's unpopularity, making it a potential flip opportunity.
• Oregon’s governor’s race is unexpectedly close, with incumbent Democrat Tina Kotek facing significant disapproval and a narrow lead for Republican challenger Christine Drazan, signaling possible Democratic vulnerability.
• Kansas could witness a historic Senate flip as Democrat Adam Hamilton challenges Trump-aligned incumbent Roger Marshall amid farmer dissatisfaction with Trump-era policies and rising fuel costs.
• Other notable races include Colorado’s 4th district, where Rep. Lauren Boebert underperforms Trump and faces a strong Democratic challenger, and South Carolina, where the unexpected death of Sen. Lindsey Graham has led to a competitive race between Trump-backed Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews.