Food systems transformation would reshape global agriculture

Key Points:

• A multimodel ensemble study analyzed global food system transformation scenarios, comparing a business-as-usual (BAU) pathway with an EL2 scenario based on the 2025 EAT–Lancet healthy diet, increased agricultural productivity, and 50% reduction in food loss and waste by 2050.
• The EL2 scenario projects significant reductions in livestock production (ruminant meat production down 53%, dairy down 27%), cereals, and sugar crops, alongside increased production of vegetables, fruits, nuts, and legumes, leading to a 17% lower total agricultural output compared to BAU.
• Environmentally, EL2 could reduce non-CO2 agricultural greenhouse gas emissions by 34% relative to BAU by 2050, with an 85% decrease in net CO2 emissions from land use change compared to 2020, and a historic reduction in agricultural land use by 274 million hectares, mainly from decreased grazing land.
• Economically, EL2 forecasts a 26% lower global agricultural production value than BAU by 2050, with a 60% drop in livestock sector value, implying major restructuring of agricultural sectors and potential impacts on rural livelihoods, especially in livestock-dependent regions.
• The study highlights challenges including political economy resistance, consumer behavior change, and regional disparities, emphasizing the need for ambitious policy, stakeholder engagement, and further research on sustainable food system pathways and their socioeconomic implications.