Four ways a hasty Trump exit from the Iran war may not end the conflict

Key Points:

• US President Donald Trump is considering withdrawing from the Iran war without toppling the regime, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, or securing a ceasefire agreement with Tehran, aiming to reduce economic impacts from Iran's attacks on global energy infrastructure.
• Despite Trump's claim that preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons is achieved, Iran's regime, now led by hardliners after the death of Ali Khamenei, is more likely to pursue nuclear weapons, with over 400 kilograms of highly enriched uranium unaccounted for.
• A US exit without reopening the Strait of Hormuz would effectively concede control of this crucial waterway to Iran, potentially allowing Tehran to impose tolls and exert significant influence over global oil markets, risking prolonged economic instability.
• Gulf Arab states feel threatened by Iran's direct attacks and control over oil exports, and a US withdrawal without security guarantees could expose them to further aggression and undermine US commitments to protect the region.
• Israel may continue military actions against Iran and Hezbollah in Lebanon if the US exits prematurely, as it seeks to weaken Iran's influence, while Iran demands comprehensive agreements to end hostilities—an outcome unlikely without US involvement.