Fox News Poll: GOP divisions shape Texas Senate race

Key Points:

• Despite President Trump winning Texas by nearly 14 points in 2024, the Fox News poll shows the Senate race is competitive, with Democrat James Talarico holding a slight 3-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton within the margin of error.
• Paxton struggles to unify the GOP base, with 24% of non-MAGA Republicans supporting Talarico, and more voters expressing concern about Paxton’s character (59%) than worry about Talarico being too extreme (47%).
• Democratic enthusiasm is higher, with more Democrats than Republicans extremely motivated and interested in the midterms, boosting Talarico’s support among highly engaged voters to a 6-point advantage.
• Key demographic divides include Paxton’s strength among White evangelical Christians, rural voters, and older men, while Talarico leads with Black voters, Hispanics, women, moderates, and younger voters.
• In the governor’s race, Republican Greg Abbott holds a narrow 1-point lead over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, with Hinojosa favored by highly motivated voters and strong support from Hispanic voters who also favor Talarico in the Senate race.