From drones to rocket fuel, China and Russia are helping Iran through supply chains

Key Points:

• China and Russia, while not directly intervening in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, are key enablers of Iran's military capabilities through a network called the "Axis of Evasion," which circumvents Western sanctions via integrated supply chains.
• China supplies Iran with drones, missile components, and dual-use technologies, often routing Western-made parts through Chinese intermediaries, while Russia shares drone technology and manufacturing expertise, creating a self-reinforcing production network.
• Iran’s drone program heavily relies on components sourced through China and Russia, including navigation systems enhanced by Chinese satellite technology and Russian battlefield experience, enabling Iran to target US and Israeli military assets effectively.
• Chemical precursors and industrial materials critical for Iran’s missile and explosives production are sourced from Chinese chemical companies, exploiting gaps in global export control enforcement through complex transshipment networks.
• To counter this, the US must intensify export control enforcement, target intermediaries and transshipment hubs facilitating sanctions evasion, and offer incentives and capacity-building support to third countries to strengthen compliance with Western economic restrictions.