Gas prices could soon breach $5 a gallon if Strait of Hormuz remains shut, J.P. Morgan analysts say
Key Points:
- U.S. gasoline prices have increased by $1.16 per gallon since the Iran war began in February and could exceed $5 a gallon by late April if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, according to J.P. Morgan energy analysts.
- The surge in gas prices may offset much or all of the larger tax refunds Americans expected from the 2025 Republican-backed tax and spending bill.
- J.P. Morgan estimates that every 10-cent increase in gas prices adds over $12 billion to annual gasoline costs, potentially reducing consumer purchasing power by around $100 billion if high prices persist through the year.
- The Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil shipping route, has seen a sharp decline in traffic from 130 ships daily in February to just six in March due to the conflict, contributing to rising fuel costs.
- Former President Trump has escalated threats against Iran, demanding the strait be reopened and warning of severe consequences if it remains closed, which could further impact gas prices and geopolitical tensions.