Gasoline Shortages in Occupied Ukraine

Key Points:

• Ongoing gasoline shortages in occupied Ukraine have intensified following Ukraine's increased mid-range strikes targeting Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs), leading to severe fuel sales restrictions in Crimea, Sevastopol, Luhansk, and Kherson oblasts.
• Ukraine's mid-range strikes have disrupted key supply routes such as the M-14 and H-20 highways and targeted fuel trucks, significantly impairing Russian logistics and resupply efforts in occupied territories.
• Concurrently, Ukraine's long-range strikes against Russian energy infrastructure have drastically reduced Russia's oil refining capacity, with major refineries scaling back or halting output, contributing to overall gasoline production declines.
• Despite intensified Ukrainian strikes, widespread gasoline shortages remain mostly confined to occupied Ukraine, as Russia has implemented export bans, increased imports from Belarus, and may have prioritized domestic supply to mitigate shortages and avoid domestic unrest.
• While gasoline shortages currently have limited impact on Russian military operations, emerging diesel shortages—critical for armored vehicles and generators—pose a growing concern, with the Kremlin reportedly considering a diesel export ban to preserve domestic and military fuel supplies.