GOP senator said gas prices would decide the midterms. Now they’re threatening his reelection

Key Points:

• Republican Senator Roger Marshall of Kansas predicted in July that the midterm elections would be influenced by gasoline prices in October, a forecast now seen as accurate due to sharply rising fuel costs amid the ongoing war in Iran.
• Since the war began in February, U.S. gasoline prices have increased by about 46%, with Kansas experiencing even steeper rises of over 57% for gas and 77% for diesel, significantly impacting local voters and farmers.
• Marshall's strong support for the war and its economic sacrifices has become a political liability, prompting Republican super PACs to invest nearly $10 million in Kansas to support his reelection bid as his race tightens against Democrat Adam Hamilton.
• Despite acknowledging the electoral risks of high fuel prices, Marshall has maintained his stance that national security and preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons justify the economic costs, comparing the sacrifices to those made during World War II.
• The Kansas Senate race has shifted from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up," with elevated gasoline prices continuing to pose a challenge for Marshall just weeks before the midterm elections.