Harris County broke early-voting records in 2018, too. Democrats still lost.

Key Points:

• Recent Texas polls show a close race, but historical data reveals that final polls in the last three statewide elections missed the margin by 3.6 to 4.7 points, making exact predictions unreliable.
• Early voting turnout in Texas, particularly in Harris County, is record-breaking, but high early turnout does not indicate which party is winning due to Texas' nonpartisan voter registration and voting patterns.
• National generic congressional ballot polls indicate a Democratic lead, but past elections since 2016 show that polling errors and unexpected results are common, so national trends may not predict Texas outcomes.
• Experts advise caution in interpreting polls: margins of error don't capture all uncertainties, small leads indicate a close race, and poll sponsorship and methodology affect reliability.
• Final analysis of the 2026 Texas election polls will be conducted post-election to assess accuracy and provide context for future polling interpretations.