High on wins in Tigray, Ethiopia now has Eritrea in its crosshairs

Key Points:

• Ethiopian Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos informed the U.N. Security Council that Eritrean troops advanced 38 miles into Ethiopia’s northern Tigray region, invoking the right to self-defense under Article 51 of the U.N. Charter.
• Eritrean Foreign Minister Osman Saleh condemned Ethiopia’s accusations as a “declaration of war,” citing claims that Ethiopia aims to invade the Eritrean port city of Assab, escalating tensions between the two countries.
• The conflict traces back to Ethiopia’s 2020 war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF), with Eritrea previously allied with Ethiopia but now reportedly coordinating with the TPLF against Ethiopia amid ongoing disputes over territory and disarmament.
• Regional dynamics complicate the conflict as Eritrea aligns with Egypt and Sudan, while Ethiopia faces a multi-front rebellion including the TPLF and other armed groups; diplomatic relations have deteriorated with expulsions of diplomats and accusations of external support for insurgents.
• Despite Ethiopia’s recent military gains in Tigray, including retaking Mekelle, experts warn that further escalation into Eritrea risks broader regional conflict and internal instability, with the international community, including the African Union and the U.S., struggling to mediate effectively.