How Trump’s China policy got turned upside down

Key Points:

• Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Xi Jinping is expected to be overshadowed by the ongoing conflict in Iran, which has diverted US military resources and attention away from Asia toward the Middle East.
• Despite initial expectations that the administration would prioritize Asia and counter China’s military rise, Trump’s second term has seen increased US involvement in the Middle East and a more accommodating stance toward China, contrary to the “Asia-first” approach favored by some of his advisors.
• Trump’s approach to China remains focused on trade and economic competition rather than geopolitical or military rivalry, with the administration backing down from an aggressive trade war after China’s retaliatory measures.
• The US has reduced aid to Ukraine and completed troop withdrawals from Syria but has taken on new international commitments outside Asia, while the Iran war has depleted critical military assets needed for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region.
• The summit with Xi Jinping is likely to be low-key and closely watched by US allies, who may view the US as distracted and unreliable due to its ongoing Middle East engagements, signaling that a strategic pivot to Asia is unlikely under the current administration.