How Trump's Iran operation turned into a forever war

Key Points:

• The U.S. has struggled to achieve its main goals in the Iran War, including regime change and halting Tehran’s regional proxy support, despite various strategies such as sanctions and kinetic strikes, both of which have failed to deliver desired outcomes.
• The Trump administration is considering two new approaches: continuing periodic military strikes ("mowing the lawn") with extended troop deployments, or declaring victory and withdrawing forces, a strategy gaining traction even among some establishment figures.
• Economic sanctions have historically failed to produce political change in Iran, especially since Iran demands sanction removal before reopening the Strait of Hormuz, a move complicated by Congressional opposition and Iran’s linkage of navigation freedoms to U.S. actions regarding Israel.
• Diplomatic efforts are further hampered by perceptions of ineffective U.S. deal-making under Trump, with recent surveys describing his approach as reactive and lacking clear direction, contributing to a stalemate similar to the prolonged conflict in Ukraine.
• Industry leaders and analysts foresee a prolonged conflict in the Gulf region, with no quick resolution expected, signaling a shift toward enduring instability rather than a return to pre-conflict conditions.