How well armed is Iran, and can it replenish missiles?
Key Points:
- Despite US and Israeli claims of having decimated Iran's missile stocks, Iranian missiles continue to strike Israel and Gulf states nearly four weeks into the conflict, indicating Iran retains some missile capability.
- Iran has the largest and most diverse missile arsenal in the Middle East, with estimates ranging from 2,500 to 6,000 missiles, including long-range ballistic missiles potentially exceeding 4,000 km.
- US and Israeli attacks have degraded but not eliminated Iran's missile launching capability, with Iran adapting its tactics to increase hit rates despite fewer launches.
- Iran's drone capacity, estimated at around 80,000 Shahed drones before the conflict, remains significant due to their low cost and ability to project power, with Iran reportedly able to produce up to 10,000 drones per month in peacetime.
- Iran continues missile production even during the war, but experts suggest its missile manufacturing rate has likely decreased, while underground missile facilities complicate US and Israeli efforts to fully neutralize Iran's missile threat.