Illinois severe weather risk upgraded to tornado

Key Points:

• The Storm Prediction Center has issued a moderate tornado risk (Level 4 of 5) for southern Illinois on Monday afternoon and evening, with the main threat expected between 2 p.m. and 10 p.m. as intense supercells develop.
• Morning thunderstorms may complicate the forecast, creating uncertainty about the timing and development of the severe storms later in the day, particularly in the St. Louis to Central Illinois area.
• A 15-29% tornado risk covers southern Illinois and the Mississippi Valley, including the St. Louis metro area, while a 10% tornado risk extends north to Bloomington and Peoria and south to the Arkansas border.
• There is a 45% risk of severe wind across Illinois, with storms potentially transitioning into a mixed mode of supercells and line segments, increasing the threat of damaging winds and weaker tornadoes later in the evening.
• A 30% hail risk is also present, with the possibility of large hail over 2.5 inches in diameter, and further updates will be provided after the next outlook release at 11:30 a.m. CDT.