Indicators of Iranian Regime Instability
Institute for the Study of War • • world
Key Points:
- The ongoing protests in Iran represent the most serious domestic unrest faced by the Islamic Republic, with the regime responding through an unprecedentedly brutal crackdown that has broadly suppressed protest activity but may not fully end it.
- Key indicators of regime instability include security personnel defecting or refusing to repress protests, withdrawal of security forces from protest scenes, deployment of IRGC conventional units and foreign militias for repression, simultaneous protests across cities and rural areas, and unusually high security force casualties.
- The regime has intensified repression efforts by deploying elite security forces such as the IRGC Ground Forces and reportedly requesting support from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias, while also extending internet blackouts and confiscating satellite communication devices to hinder protest coordination.
- Partial indicators of strain on the regime include
