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Inside NBC News’ polling averages: Democrats enjoy biggest lead yet in the race for Congress
NBC News • • general
Key Points:
- Democrats hold a 9-point lead over Republicans in the race for control of Congress heading into the 2026 midterms, with a 52% to 43% advantage among likely voters according to NBC News polling averages.
- President Donald Trump’s approval rating has declined to 39%, with 59% disapproving, driven largely by decreased support among independents, whose approval of Trump stands at just 26%.
- The shift toward Democrats is primarily due to changing preferences among independents, who now favor a Democratic-controlled Congress by 16 points, reflecting dissatisfaction with Trump’s economic policies and handling of issues like the Iran war and immigration enforcement.
- Republican approval of Trump has also slightly declined, from mid-to-high 80s to 79%, while Democrats and Republicans remain largely consistent in their party support.
- NBC News polling averages adjust for differences in poll methodologies and voter likelihood, showing stronger Democratic support among likely voters, which is critical as the election approaches.
